From Peter King:
I think it's entirely possible Kyle Orton's better than Jay Cutler.
I realize it might be an unfair day to make the comparison that Kyle Orton's better than Jay Cutler, but I'm not pitting the quarterbacks against each other on the basis of Orton's terrific road performance at Tennessee and on Cutler's feeble and concussed one in New Jersey Sunday night. This is about a body of work -- granted, not a deep body of work, but a 20-game stretch.
In the NFL, a 20-game sample is enough to make a valid comparison. And on the basis of 20 games, it's hard to argue that Chicago got the better of the Jay Cutler-for-Kyle Orton deal. Forget the ancillary parts of the deal; Denver has not drafted well, and I'm not doing this item to get into the value of the two first-round picks and the third-rounder (which turned into Mike Wallace for the Steelers) acquired by Denver in the deal. Denver didn't do a good job with those picks, but I'm just talking Cutler for Orton. And after Orton's 341-yard performance in the 26-20 win over the Titans, I thought it would be a good chance to take a 20-game look at the two passers. I was surprised by what I found.
QB W-L Pct. Yards TD-Int Yards per att. Rating
Orton 10-9 .634 5,221 27-15 7.29 89.1
Cutler 10-10 .615 4,578 33-29 6.97 80.7
Through the first four weeks of the 2010 season, Orton's 1,419 passing yards leads the NFL; Cutler is 507 yards behind him.
As I remember the April 2009 trade, I'll never forget Denver coach Josh McDaniels telling me he wished Cutler just gave him, and his offense, a chance. "He'd have loved it,'' McDaniels said. "I think any quarterback would love it.''
Cutler got the change of scenery he wanted, but he struggled under offensive coordinator Ron Turner last year, and he's being plagued by terrible protection issues under new coordinator Mike Martz this year; he was sacked nine times and suffered a concussion Sunday night against the Giants.
How long will Cutler have Martz to work with? Who knows? Martz doesn't stay in one coordinator's job very long -- two years in Detroit, one in San Francisco and one now in Chicago. Then again, if the Broncos continue to flame out, Denver owner Pat Bowlen could make a change at head coach, but he's likely to give McDaniels at least one more year.
Quarterbacks under McDaniels have to be smart because McDaniels gives them so much latitude to change plays, both in the meeting rooms and on the field. Orton's very quiet, but I've witnessed him (last May) in meetings changing little things to make it easier to recall and call plays.
You'll remember, this was supposed to be a lopsided deal favoring the Bears. It's not every day you have the chance to get a franchise quarterback in his prime, still young enough to give you six or seven seasons. It's still very early, and we don't know if Orton can keep it up. He's going to have Tim Tebow breathing down his neck in a few months, I'd guess. But he's outplaying Cutler right now. When a quarterback is more accurate and has the better average per pass attempt, that means he's moving the chains and getting the ball downfield. Right now, Orton's better at both.
8 comments:
I have no problem saying that right now it looks like the Bears would have been better off with Orton.
Keeping Orton and then using the 2 first round picks on offensive linemen would likely have made the Bears better.
But the Bears also got Knox with the 5th round pick they got from Denver and it is still early in the trade. Orton has a history of fading as the season wears on and neither team has really won consistently so it is tough to argue for either guy right now.
I won't argue the numbers - but there is no real point in doing so at this point. If one of the teams goes to the playoffs or wins the Super Bowl in the next couple of years then we will have definitive proof of the value of the trade.
The other problem with Jeff Cutler that isn't mentioned is that he is a baby. His body language speaks volumes. He literally seems like the second coming of Jeff George. In fact, I think Jeff Cutler is really Jeff George in disguise.
Orton is not flashy and is a pretty quiet guy but he seems to have really found his stride. Orton may not be an all pro or anything but he seems to understand what it takes to get the job done and he seems to have earned his team's respect.
We'll see. I like Orton. I like Rex. I like Jay. They can all play if the system is right. Last night, all three of them would have struggled because of play calling and poor O-line play, but some of them (perhaps Orton) could have made some better reads.
In the end, I want wins and the fact is that in Chicago Rex and Kyle were able to win. Jay needs to show it - and I think he will.
Actually, the most important point is the quality of the offense lines, so it's very difficult to make this comparison. Cutler has really lit up other teams when he has some time and good receivers/running backs. Also, I think Cutler has more upside than Orton.
Cutler was sacked 11 times all season in his last year in Denver. He was sacked 35 times last year and this year is bad.
There was a breakdown of his sacks that showed that 7 of them were a result of him holding the ball far too long - waiting for a play to develop.
I actually think that he was lit up early and may have been groggy - that made him slower with his decision making throughout the half. It is the only explanation I have for how long he seemed to be waiting and for his poor decision-making. I think something was wrong with him well before halftime.
"I like Orton. I like Rex. I like Jay."
You'd like Capt. Kangaroo if da Bears put him behind center.
Well said, Deepie...well said.
I'm not even going to bother.
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